An old friend recently challenged me to make some predictions. While I think he was referring to political and economic developments, I’ve decided to create a public model portfolio.
Looking back I’ve only ever really made money when a fundamental macro view lined up with excellent financials and valuations, and it can be explained to anyone in simple terms.
I restrict my trading these days to (mostly) such ideas.
I’m going to weight each idea 20% of the portfolio. Ill stick to a seven ideas, with a net portfolio exposure no greater than 80%. Perhaps I’ll get more funky with hedges later but this is simple enough for now, and a very responsible way of investing capital. Over the long term it would be very hard to lose a lot of money.
Idea 1: Tech. buy 20% apple, sell 20% amazon.
Idea 2: Autos. buy 5% ford, 5% BMW, 5% Volkswagen, 5% Tata motors (India)
Idea 3: Shipping. Buy 15% Box Ships, 5% Navios Maritime Holdings
Total exposure = 40%
Gross exposure = 40%
I’ll track this relative to various indices.