But for the first time in a while, I feel like walking away for the market. Something’s not right..
Let me count the ways:
1. Chinese inflation figures where high, making monetary easing that much harder
2. No mention of QE3 from the Fed.. given their communication policies, I’d say that’s now looking quite unlikely
3. Germans are talking about fiscal discipline again – as if inflation has anything to do with anything right now, or their loose talk and inopportune rate rising didn’t screw things over last year
4. Rising spanish debt yields – predicator of the annual euro slump we’ve come used to
5. Expectations for a very good US jobs number which massively underperformed on Friday.
6. There has just been a stonking rally.
Finally, the Chinese market is getting dicked, and for the past five years that has meant stay the fuck away from risk.
There’s not much to be positive about, save to hope April is a wipeout and that sets us up for a ripping second half of the year. ‘Sell in may and go away’ can’t work every year.
I’d say copper’s looking pretty exposed from here (yes that is a head and shoulders pattern)
In fact, the whole market is a head and shoulders pattern.
I’ve had a pretty good run since december (well, less good after the past couple of days) but now face the age old dilemma with all the tricks for the unwary and general mindfucks contained within: hold them or fold them.